Quick Search:    advanced search

GSW Home   GeoRef Home   My GSW Alerts   Contact GSW   About GSW   Journals List   Help

This Article Full Text (PDF) References Alert me when this article is cited Alert me if a correction is posted Citation Map Services Email this article to a friend Similar articles in this journal Alert me to new issues of the journal Download to citation manager Citing Articles Citing Articles via HighWire Citing Articles via Google Scholar Google Scholar Articles by SHAKAL, A. F. Articles by WILLIS, D. E. Search for Related Content GeoRef GeoRef Citation

Estimated earthquake probabilities in the north circum-Pacific area

DEPARTMENT OF GEOLOGICAL SCIENCES UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN, MILWAUKEE, MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN

Abstract

Gumbel's extreme value theory is applied to the estimation of probabilities of occurrence and return periods for large earthquakes in the north circum-Pacific area, using earthquake data from 1930 through 1971. The probability model of Epstein and Lomnitz is discussed with reference to Gumbel's extreme value theory. Estimated probabilities and expected extremes within individual tectonic blocks are calculated and compared. The area of the Aleutian Arc between 155°W and 167°W is found to have about an 80 per cent probability of an M_s 8 earthquake by 1980.

This article has been cited by other articles:

				B. F. Howell Jr. On the variation of seismic hazard along the San Andreas fault Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, April 1, 1984; 74(2): 709 - 723. [Abstract] [PDF]

				A. F. Shakal, A. F. SHAKAL, and M. N. TOKSOZ Earthquake Hazard in New England Science, January 14, 1977; 195(4274): 171 - 173. [Abstract] [PDF]