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Study of seismological evasion

Part I. General discussion of various evasion schemes

OFFICE OF EARTHQUAKE STUDIES U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY, 345 MIDDLEFIELD ROAD, MENLO PARK, CALIFORNIA

Abstract

This paper discusses seismological aspects of various proposed means of obscuring or hiding the seismic signatures of explosions from a surveillance network. These so-called evasion schemes are discussed from the points of view of both the evader and the monitor. The analysis will be conducted in terms of the USSR since that country is so vast and its geological and geophysical complexities are so great that the complete spectrum of hypothesized evasion schemes requires discussion.

This part of the paper (part I) will be a general discussion of these evasion schemes, placing the concepts within the reality of general factors influencing effective use of the techniques. Part II will describe techniques for quantitative investigation of evasion schemes when the only noise problem is normal microseismic noise, and will give analyses of several seismological networks as regards their capabilities to restrain imagined clandestine testing by the USSR under such noise conditions. Part III will describe techniques appropriate for use when the noise problem is the P and surface-wave codas of earthquakes, and will give analyses of capabilities of several seismological networks to restrain use of such codas for effective evasion.

Footnotes

^* The opinions expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the United States government.

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