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A discussion of seismic risk including precursors

POLITECNICO DI MILANO ISTITUTO DI SCIENZA E TECNICA DELLE COSTRUZIONI, 20133 MILANO, Italy

Abstract

Precursor events are included in a Poisson process of earthquake occurrence, introducing the useful warning time t from the precursor to the earthquake. Their probabilistic significance is discussed, depending on the probabilities of false and missed forecasts.

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