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Stiffness method for anticipating earthquakes

U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY, 345 MIDDLEFIELD ROAD, MENLO PARK, CA 94025

Abstract

In strain softening earthquake models, the single variable R = K_f/K_s measures the nearness to earthquake instability; K_f and K_s are stiffnesses of the fault zone and elastic surroundings. Instability occurs when increasing R reaches unity. For a simple two-dimensional antiplane model, R is a function of d/dU and H, where is shear strain at the ground surface, and U is remote displacement observed at a distance, H, from the fault. R is independent of the fault zone constitutive law, crustal rigidity, and shear stress magnitude.

Footnotes

^* Present address: Department of Geological Sciences, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio 44106.

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