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Probabilistic earthquake expectancy in the northeast Indian region

DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE GAUHATI UNIVERSITY, GAUHATI 781 014, ASSAM, India

Abstract

Gumbel's theory of extreme events has been applied to the prediction of earthquake recurrence rates in the northeast Indian region using the largest annual earthquakes occurring between 1929 and 1978, a period for which records are relatively complete. For the northeast Indian region, as a whole, the average return periods for an earthquake of magnitude 8 or greater, are found to be about 30 and 25 yr, applying Types I and III distributions, respectively. The magnitudes of the largest annual earthquakes expected to occur in 25, 50, and 100 yr for six different tectonic blocks of the region are also estimated.

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