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Earthquake recurrence models and historical seismicity in the Mexicali-Imperial Valley

INSTITUTE OF GEOPHYSICS AND PLANETARY PHYSICS SCRIPPS INSTITUTE OF OCEANOGRAPHY (A025) UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA,, SAN DIEGO, LA JOLLA, CALIFORNIA 92093

Abstract

We have examined the historical seismicity of the Mexicali-Imperial Valley. Since about 1850, the largest observed earthquake in the area has been the magnitude (M_w) 7.1 December 1934 event. The magnitude distribution for large plate-boundary rupturing earthquakes (M > 5.8) is not well fit by the Gutenberg-Richter type (b value) model. Models which better fit the observed magnitude distribution are derived from a lognormal distribution of stress drops on faults of constant size and from an exponential distribution of rupture lengths, as might be expected from randomly distributed rupture-stopping asperities along the length of the fault. This may be among the best data in the world for testing earthquake recurrence models (e.g., time predictability, slip predictability) on a strike-slip fault, but the uncertainties are still too great to permit a unique interpretation.

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