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Alarm systems based on a pair of short-term earthquake precursors

POLITECNICO DI MILANO DIPARTIMENTO DI INGENERIA STRUTTURALE, PIAZZA LEONARDO DA VINCI, 32, 20133 MILAN, Italy

Abstract

A statistical analysis of the foreshock-main shock correlation for a seismically active region in Italy is presented. It is found that the probability that a weak shock be followed within 2 days by a main shock is of the order of 2 per cent, while the probability that a main shock be preceded by a foreshock is of the order of 50 per cent. These results are quite similar to those found by L. Jones (1985) for southern California.

The effectiveness of alarm systems based on a pair of short-term earthquake precursors is then analyzed. In particular, the analysis shows under what conditions the precursor, consisting of potential foreshocks, could be combined with another precursor to provide a reasonably effective alarm system.