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Seismic hazard sensitivity analysis: A multi-parameter approach

INSTITUTE FOR PETROLEUM RESEARCH AND GEOPHYSICS, BOX 2286, HOLON, Israel
DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS RAYMOND AND BEVERLY SACKLER FACULTY OF EXACT SCIENCES TEL AVIV UNIVERSITY, RAMAT-AVIV, Israel

Abstract

We propose a novel multi-parameter approach for conducting seismic hazard sensitivity analysis. This approach allows one to assess the importance of each input parameter at a variety of settings of the other input parameters and thus provides a much richer picture than standard analyses, which assess each input parameter only at the default settings of the other parameters. We illustrate our method with a sensitivity analysis of seismic hazard for Jerusalem. In this example, we find several input parameters whose importance depends critically on the settings of other input parameters. This phenomenon, which cannot be detected by a standard sensitivity analysis, is easily diagnosed by our method. The multi-parameter approach can also be used in the context of a probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard that incorporates subjective probability distributions for the input parameters.

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