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Long-term earthquake prediction in Central America and Caribbean Sea based on the time- and magnitude-predictable model

Geophysical Laboratory University of Thessaloniki, GR-54006 Thessaloniki, Greece

Abstract

Instrumental and historical information on strong mainshocks for 12 seismogenic sources in Central America and Caribbean Sea has been used to show that the interevent time, T_t (in years), between two strong earthquakes and the magnitude, M_f of the following mainshock are given by the relations

where M_min is the surface-wave magnitude of the smallest mainshock considered, M_p the magnitude of the preceding mainshock, and m₀ the moment rate per year in each source. On the basis of these relations, the probability of the occurrence of a mainshock during the decade 1993 to 2002 as well as the magnitude of this expected mainshock in each seismogenic source has been calculated. The highest probability (P₁₀ = 0.67) was estimated for the seismogenic source of El Salvador (A₁) for the occurrence of a large earthquake with expected magnitude M_f = 7.5, and high probabilities (P₁₀ 0.55) were estimated for the seismogenic sources of Jamaica (C₃) and Puerto Rico (C₅) for earthquakes with expected magnitudes M_f = 7.5 in both sources.

This article has been cited by other articles:

				Time-Independent and Time-Dependent Seismic Hazard in Greece Based on Seismogenic Sources Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, February 1, 2000; 90(1): 22 - 33.

				C. B. Papazachos and E. E. Papadimitriou Evaluation of the global applicability of the regional time- and magnitude-predictable seismicity model Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, August 1, 1997; 87(4): 799 - 808. [Abstract] [PDF]