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Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America; June 1996; v. 86; no. 3; p. 691-700
© 1996 Seismological Society of America
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Statistical estimation of seismic hazard parameters: Maximum possible magnitude and related parameters

V. F. Pisarenko, A. A. Lyubushin, V. B. Lysenko and T. V. Golubeva

Joint Institute of the Physics of the Earth Russian Academy of Sciences, Bolshaya Gruzinskaya 10, 123242 Moscow, Russia
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical GeophysicsRussian Academy of Sciences, Warshavskoe shosse 79, korp. 2, 113556 Moscow, Russia

Abstract

The problem of statistical estimation of earthquake hazard parameters is considered. The emphasis is on estimation of the maximum regional magnitude, Mmax, and the maximum magnitude, Mmax(T), in a future time interval T and quantiles of its distribution. Two estimators are suggested: an unbiased estimator with the lowest possible variance and a Bayesian estimator. As an illustration, these methods are applied for the estimation of Mmax and related parameters in California and Italy.




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